Drought That Ravaged US Crops Likely to Worsen in 2013, Forecast Warns

NOAA predicts tough spring for already struggling farmers as growing demand for water leaves US more exposed dry seasons.

The historic drought that laid waste to America's grain and corn belt is unlikely to ease before the middle of this year, a government forecast warned on Thursday.

The annual spring outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted hotter, drier conditions across much of the US, including parts of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas, where farmers have been fighting to hang on to crops of winter wheat.

The three-month forecast noted an additional hazard, however, for the midwest: with heavy, late snows setting up conditions for flooding along the Red and Souris rivers in North Dakota.

"It's a mixed bag of flooding, drought and warm weather," Laura Furgione, the deputy director of NOAA's weather service told a conference call with reporters.

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http://climatedesk.org/2013/03/drought-that-ravaged-us-crops-likely-to

Explained in 90 Seconds: It's Cold. That Doesn't Mean Global Warming is Fake.

This crash course on climate modeling will come in handy if you ever have to explain a cold snap to a climate denier.

At Climate Desk, we like to call them-affectionately-our "pet trolls." (You know who you are. Hi!) They are regular readers that pepper us on Twitter and Facebook with one of several climate myths upon the publication of every article, sometimes with freakish speed. One of the most popular myths is this: Global warming isn't real because it's really cold outside; climate models are thus full of sh*t. So, here in 90 seconds, is our attempt to explain something we interact with every day, in all sorts of ways, from flying in a plane, to getting a loan, to betting on a horse: computer modeling.

Our video features Drew Purves, from Microsoft in Cambridge, UK, a statistics whiz specializing in modeling the climate and ecosystems. Think of him as the Nate Silver of carbon. You can read about his latest research project, a rallying cry to model the entire world's ecology-that's right, the entire world-in the latest edition of Nature.

http://climatedesk.org/2013/01/explained-in-90-seconds-its-cold-that-d

How Climate Change Could Wipe Out the Western Forests

If current trends continue, the landscapes of states like New Mexico and Arizona may soon be unrecognizable.

DVIDSHUB/Flickr

The fire that burned through Forest Canyon, a breathtaking stretch of wilderness ringed by snowy peaks in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, started in October and burned long past the end of the fire season. Trees still smoldered in late December, and the smoke mixed with dry snow blowing in the air. Known as the Fern Lake Fire, the blaze tore through 3,500 acres of land the federal government set aside a century ago both to provide public enjoyment and protect it from human destruction.

One of those missions has been accomplished: 3.1 million people visit the park each year. Increasingly, however, the destruction it was meant to prevent is encroaching. Like most wildfires, the Fern Lake Fire was the work of careless individuals. Most likely campers let an illegal campfire get out of control. But science suggests our collective effort may have made it much worse.

Last year was the hottest on record in the United States, and the fall weather was unseasonably warm in the Rockies. The forest was weakened by prolonged drought; that November was the driest ever recorded in the park. An epidemic of bark beetles, which thrive in warmer conditions, was already in the process of killing off thousands of trees. The area's first heavy snow came unusually late, in mid-December, and only then did the fire slow down.

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http://climatedesk.org/2013/01/how-climate-change-could-wipe-out-the-w

"Catastrophic" Heat Wave Burning up Australia

The Australian Prime Minister warns of more extreme weather to come.

Bushfire in Forcett, Tasmania, 4th January 2013. Andrew Page: farmatronic/Flickr

Every Australian knows well the smell of burning Eucalyptus. As a kid, I remember filling bathtubs and hosing the house as embers flew overhead and the lawn turned grey with ash. The family photo albums practically lived for one month each summer in the back of the car.

So regular are fires across this big, dry place (the driest inhabited continent on earth) that they are given a season unto themselves-"bushfire season"-which kicks off late December and continues through the height of Summer with predictable emergency broadcasts, panicked residents fleeing in cars, and the endless debate about evacuation plans and controlled burning.

It's an old story, but one that scientists warn will become ever more common because of climate change.

Australia's bushfire season hit with force last week, fueled by a record coast-to-coast heat wave that will continue unabated across the next few days. Today set a new record in Australia, an average maximum of 40.33 degrees Celsius (about 104.6 degrees Fahrenheit), beating the previous record set in 1976. Yes, that's an average maximum.

Blair Trewin, a senior climatologist with the National Climate Centre at the Australian Bureau of Meterology, says this heatwave covers a bigger area than did the deadly 2009 heatwave, which coincided with the "Black Saturday" bushfires in Victoria that killed 173 and destroyed over 3,500 structures. Last week, he said, eighty percent of the country recorded temperatures above normal for this time of year. The state of New South Wales is now facing its worst fire danger ever, according to state leaders. They are blanketing mobile phones with warnings to get ready for the worst.

Sydney-Australia's most populated city-is now waking up to what may be its hottest day on record in 150 years, up to 110 degrees Fahrenheit, creating conditions that the Premier of that state, Barry O'Farrell, said could be "the worst fire-danger day this state has ever faced." The threat is being met with "catastrophic" fire warnings that fires have the potential to cause significant loss of life and destroy many homes. Residents are being told to leave early from high risk areas.

At time of writing, more than 100 fires were burning across that state. Twenty-one were uncontained.

Trewin says this heatwave is being caused by what's been dubbed the "dome of heat", made worse by a delayed monsoon season which would have normally brought relief in the form of moisture by now. "At the peak of summer, the air mass over central Australia, left unstirred, is going to get very hot," Trewin says. "Temperature is certainly a factor, but the thing with fire is strong winds and low humidity." All three are combining right now to cause dangerous conditions centered around Australia's populous South East.

Fires have already destroyed about 100 buildings in Tasmania, Australia's Southern island state known for its verdant wilderness, forcing thousands to flee their homes in cars and boats. Rescuers are now searching the wreckage for around 100 residents who remain unaccounted for, according to the AP.

This time, Australia's Prime Minister Julia Gillard is listing climate change as a background cause, and is warning of more extreme weather to come. "Whilst you would not put any one event down to climate change," she told reporters in Tasmania as she toured the damage, "we do know over time that as a result of climate change we are going to see more extreme weather events and conditions."

While that's been said before in Australia in the context of bushfires, it's significant this year because the Prime Minister's carbon tax-which aims to avert the devastating effects of climate change by reducing the amount of carbon in the air-will feel the full brunt of a brutal election campaign against an opposition that vehemently opposes the tax.

Gillard's comments are consistent with what Trewin sees in the national climate data: "The number of record high temperatures outstrip the number of record low temperatures at a ratio 3 to 1 over the last decade," he said.

http://climatedesk.org/2013/01/catastrophic-heat-wave-burning-up-austr

2007 world's warmest winter on record

Weather records have been kept for a bit over a hundred years, so in terms of global climate this is pretty scant evidence given the age of the planet. Still the last 10 years has seen record warm winters year after year. That sure indicates a trend. This last winter was the warmest yet on record, a thought we shouldn't be surprised over given how warm it was in January. There were several reports throughout the winter where bears were not hibernating, because it wasn't cold enough to trigger that response. In Moscow, Russia, they didn't have a white christmas. etc.

Can we just get past the question of whether this is happening and get on with a solution?

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2007 world's warmest winter on record