Key to Climate Preparedness: Building Social Capital & Strong Towns

Deron Lovaas, Federal Transportation Policy Director, Washington, D.C.

Is climate preparedness and resilience mostly if not entirely a question of costly investments in physical infrastructure? Safe to assume if we keep in mind bits of pithy wisdom like Churchill's: "We shape our buildings, thereafter they shape us." Efficiently and wisely located and designed infrastructure should therefore be the most important factor in determining resilience in the face of disruptive climatic changes.

Then I came across the story of Village de L'Est, a Vietnamese community located logically on the eastern end of New Orleans, in the National Academy of Sciences report on disaster resilience. This remarkable community and its Mary Queen of Vietnam Church worked was an active hub of recovery activities after Katrina. Emergency supplies were gathered and distributed thanks to the church. Rebuilding commenced soon after the hurricane, and community leaders reached out to evacuees in shelters in Arkansas, Louisiana and Texas to maintain connections. This New Orleans neighborhood has experienced an astounding 90 percent population recovery.

8/29/05 photo of Katrina courtesy of NASA's Earth Observatory

Andrew Zolli and Ann Marie Healy describe similar successes in rebounding from disaster in their fun and enlightening book Resilience: Why Things Bounce Back. The book is full of bracing and inspiring stories like the amazing commitment to recovery by Hancock Bank in New Orleans after Katrina, as described by Zolli himself in the video below:

The book's last chapter has specific recommendations for building resilience, which are useful for climate preparedness:

• "Mapping fragilities, thresholds and feedback loops": Zolli notes that "surprisingly few communities or organizations have any kind of structure in place to think broadly and proactively about the fragilities and potential disruptions that confront them."
• "Embracing Adhocracy," which means complementing plans and procedures of bureaucracies with innovations and coordination that connects them (I wonder how many metropolitan long-range transportation plans are thoroughly meshed with the thousands of disaster plans required since 2000?)
• "The Fierce Urgency of Data," which may sound boring but which is arguably the most crucial part of the resilience equation. The book covers how recovery from the Haiti earthquake was aided immensely by a massive data collection effort that used social media to map clusters of incidents. Rescue organizations, and the U.S. Marines, found this to be an invaluable tool. Not covered by the book, but particularly relevant to transportation, is the increasing amount of data that can be collected from computers in cars like the one sitting my driveway (a 2012 Toyota Plug-In Prius) in order to assess the functionality of highways, roads and bridges subsequent to a disaster. For the first time ever, after the massive earthquake and tsunami that hit Japan just a couple of years ago, Toyota and the other two big Japanese automakers combined forces to provide a real-time map of the road network for government, companies and the public. ITS-Japan has some details here.
• "Rehearsing the Future" is basically scenario-planning, which is specifically authorized as "optional" in the MAP-21. Such planning should not be "optional," however, for regions serious about climate preparedness (unlike federal transportation policymakers, evidently). It's not just the product that matters, as Zolli points out when quoting one of the scientists behind a particular coastal resilience software platform called "Marine InVEST": "In many ways, these renewed relationships [between community members] are the sofware's deliverable...the models get better every time we engage with nonscientists and...so do their relationships with one another."

And this is exactly the point. Strong social relationships in our communities matter most. This brings us to what scientists including most notably Robert Putnam, author of Bowling Alone , call "social capital." And more specifically, it brings us to a denser, more robust book by Daniel Aldrich of Purdue University (formerly of Tulane, where he moved shortly before Katrina struck New Orleans), called Building Resilience. Here's Aldrich himself describing his work:

Aldrich examines qualitative and quantitative data sets detailing recovery patterns and causes after four catastrophic events: Massive earthquakes in Tokyo (1923) and Kobe (1995), the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami (2004) and of course Hurricane Katrina (2005). The book is rich with findings:

• First, social capital matters most to speedy recovery in each of these disasters.
• Second, a combination of different kinds of social capital is crucial; areas need "bonding" capital, meaning ties within the community, "bridging" capital connecting to other communities, and "linking" capital connecting to helpful outsiders such as government representatives and nonprofit service organizations.
• Third, social capital can have negative effects, most memorably in India where Dalits (the lowly caste of so-called "untouchables") were excluded from social networks and in New Orleans where well-organized communities shunned temporary trailers thereby slowing citywide recovery efforts.

He concludes the book by explaining why social capital was key to "effective and efficient recoveries" from these crises:

• "First, deep levels of social capital serve as informal insurance and promote mutual assistance after a disaster." Connected communities can serve as the real first-responders, even before professionals arrive on the scene.
• "Next, dense and numerous social ties help survivors solve collective action problems that stymie rehabilitiation." Coordination of data collection and aid distribution is made possible by strong networks.
• "Finally, strong social ties strengthen the voices of survivors and decrease the probability of their leaving." Voice, not exit is something Aldrich cites as important for community recovery. Like a big rubber band, when feel attached to a community, and see hope for its future, we can be pulled back there after a disaster.

Both Zolli and Aldrich are skeptical about rigid, centralized, expensive programs for recovery. And this brings me to Chuck Marohn, whose recent book made up of a compilation of his blogs from his strongtowns.org site has been favorably reviewed by NRDC's master-blogger Kaid Benfield. For years, Chuck has been preaching the gospel of Strong Towns, underpinned by five principles, most of which focus on fiscal conservatism vs. fiscal waste and the last of which is most salient here:

5. [Strong towns] Must have the courage and leadership to plan for long-term viability. Does your town have a long-term plan for success? Do the leaders in your community understand that plan and embrace it? Are short-term decisions made through the prism of the long-term viability of the community? Are the members of the town engaged in a broad and comprehensive way in the planning of the community?

This principle, it seems to me, is all about bonding social capital. And it's crucial to climate preparedness, moreso than physical infrastructure. Sure, we need to harden, redesign and even relocate our structures and infrastructures. But hats off to Chuck because strong towns, socially speaking, are even more important in a world with a changing climate.

Let's get to work building them.

http://switchboard.nrdc.org/blogs/dlovaas/key_to_climate_preparedness_

Preparing Transportation for Climate Change: We Are Not Ready

Deron Lovaas, Federal Transportation Policy Director, Washington, D.C.

This past Sunday at church, my daughter and I heard a story based on a children's book that delighted her and caught my attention too. You may have heard of it - "Ming Lo Moves the Mountain." It's a clever parable about a family frustrated at the effects of a mountain looming over their home, including lack of sunlight and occasional boulders crashing through the roof. They determine they have to move the mountain, and after consulting the village wise man repeatedly they finally figure out how to get the job done. They deconstruct their house, pack it up, close their eyes, and take enough steps back that the mountain magically becomes smaller!

It's a cute story which resonated with me because I've been thinking and reading up on climate preparedness. Being prepared requires, first of all, respect for Mother Nature so we can adjust to reality when necessary (i.e., move away from the mountain).

Based on my research so far, I can't help but conclude that we are not ready, at least not in the transportation sector. Far from it.

Photo of flooded NY subway stop after Superstorm Sandy hit, courtesy of MTA

First of all, it helps to diagnose the situation - just how far-reaching and intense might the effects of climate change be? As part of its latest, statutorily required initiative to determine this via a National Climate Assessment, the Department of Transportation held a two-day workshop last fall about the "Systemic Impacts of Climate on Transportation." Here's the final report from the series of presentations by government and academic analysts, followed by a facilitated discussion with our whole group. The presentations are sobering. Sea-level rise scenarios of 0.2 to 2.0 meters (anywhere from 8 inches to 6-and-a-half feet!) by 2100; more extreme events including droughts, floods, storms, heat and cold waves and hurricanes; as well as challenging "slow-motion" shifts like crop migration.

Some of this is echoed in the National Climate Assessment (NCA) draft itself (a nearly 1200-page report which is currently available for public comments here). The transportation chapter (pdf here) provides the first hint that we aren't prepared. There is some useful diagnostic information here, including the bald assertion that changing climatic conditions "are reducing [not will reduce; emphasis mine] the reliability and capacity of the U.S. transportation system in many ways." There's also a useful matrix for illustrating risks of climate-related impacts, with "magnitude of consequences" and "likelihood of occurrence" plotted out; this could be a diagnostic tool for state and local transportation agencies.

But other than some generic advice regarding adaptation and coping techniques, and a few interesting success stories -- no surprise that the transit agency in the progressive haven of Portlandia has already installed expansion joints for rail in vulnerable locations - the chapter is thin gruel when it comes to assessing preparedness at the local, state or national levels. We have to look elsewhere to determine how ready we might be.

So I searched the thousands of papers from this year's Transportation Research Board conference for ones on climate adaptation and preparedness. How many did I find? Just 5.

Transportation is a notoriously close-knit industry so as expected one of the papers was co-authored by one of the authors of the NCA transpo chapter, Professor Michael Meyer (the co-author's a grad student, Thomas Wall). The paper is a "synthesis" examination of infrastructure-specific adaptation frameworks in Australia, Canada, the EU, New Zealand, Scotland as well as the U.K. and U.S. An eye-catching conclusion is a "broad agreement on the limitations of the frameworks developed, and the barriers preventing their further development and implementation."

The other two that were most interesting include one explaining a "sensitivity matrix," a tool for gauging the vulnerability of infrastructure assets to damage based on possible storm surges on the Gulf Coast. The team at ICF consulting developed this with the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA, and it's consequently available on the FHWA site here), and unfortunately as the authors note it may not be applicable to public transportation assets.

The other one, entitled "Assessing Public Transportation Agencies' Climate Change Adaptation Activities and Needs," is all about public transportation, and is co-authored by (who else?) two Portland State University professors. In addition to an inventory of climate adaptation projects funded by smart staff at the Federal Transit Administration (I wrote about FTA's work in previous blog entry), the paper reports on the results of a survey of public transportation agencies coordinate with the American Public Transportation Association (or APTA; NRDC is proud to be a member of it). 64 transit agencies from 28 states filled out a survey, and the findings are frankly alarming. Fully 92 percent say they've already been impacted just in the last decade by major storm events, and 60 percent "felt it was somewhat important for their organizations to prepare for future impacts of climate change..." and 28 percent "indicated that their organization feels that climate change is currently impacting their community..."

The good news is that at least 38 percent of agencies are "collecting cost data and/or other information and data about weather events or climate projections to assess the impact on their infrastructure and operations" and 57 percent have "identified assets and infrastructure that are vulnerable to extreme weather events." But "only 21 respondents indicated that their agency was currently involved in adaptation climate change planning activities" and "nearly 34 percent of the agencies are not collecting or using any data related to extreme weather or climate change." [emphases mine] The three big barriers to doing more identified by those surveyed include lack of funding, low institutional priority and need for better data and tools. And these are the subset of 300 agencies surveyed who chose to respond, self-selection that probably entails a higher degree of commitment and preparation than those who ignored the questionnaire.

To be clear, there are examples of leaders in climate preparedness as profiled in the NCA as well as in resources such as the National Academies new report on Disaster Resilience: A National Imperative (report and handy, brief executive summary available here) and U.Va. Professor Tim Beatley's well-written book Planning for Coastal Resilience. And in response to hurricane Sandy, New York City and State have pulled together impressive plans including one looking way out to the year 2100.

The bottom line though is that laggards outnumber leaders in climate preparedness, and policymakers must get to work in order to change that for the sake of our transportation system's future.

http://switchboard.nrdc.org/blogs/dlovaas/preparing_transportation_for

President Obama Vows Action on Climate; Latino Groups Support Swift Action

Adrianna Quintero, Senior Attorney, Director, La Onda Verde de NRDC, San Francisco

In his second inaugural speech yesterday, President Obama presented his vision for the future of our country, calling on us to seize the moment and highlighting the strength of our country's diversity. For Latinos across the nation there was much to cheer for, and much to hope for.

Answering the concerns of so many families, the President affirmed his commitment to ease the path to citizenship for immigrants, improve outdated education programs, and create greater equality in our workforce. And in a bold pledge to protect the health of our families and communities, President Obama declared that his administration would work to address climate change--a commitment strongly supported by Latinos nationwide.

With communities still recovering from the flooding and devastation left by Hurricane Sandy, the President's call for action to curb climate change could not come soon enough. 2012 saw thousands of records broken in the U.S. for heat, rain, and snow across the country, with American families suffering the consequences. From devastating droughts in the Midwest that ruined crops and the livelihoods of American farmers, to violent storms that left thousands without power or water along the East Coast, 2012 proved to be a shockingly dangerous--and deadly--year of extreme weather events.

Ready or not, our climate is changing, and we're witnessing the consequences in our backyard. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported that 2012 was the hottest year ever recorded in the continental United States. A warmer climate fuels more heat waves, downpours, floods, fires, and other extreme weather events--just what we've seen across the country over the past few years.

The President got it right when he stated that we will all be affected by a changing climate. As the President stated, "Some may still deny the overwhelming judgment of science, but none can avoid the devastating impact of raging fires and crippling drought and more powerful storms."

We can't afford to wait any longer. That's why leading Latino groups, along with small business owners and environmental organizations, are urging President Obama to act quickly to address the growing climate threat. In a new letter to the President, Voces Verdes, the National Hispanic Medical Association, the League of United Latin American Citizens (LULAC), and over a dozen other leading Latino organizations, called on President Obama to curb harmful carbon pollution from existing coal-fired power plants.

The President has already acted to reduce pollution from new power plants. But we can't stop there. Coal-fired power plants are the nation's largest source of global warming pollution. Implementing new standards for existing power plants will put us on a path toward climate stability, unleash investment in new clean energy technologies, and help stem the devastating storms, droughts, and floods worsened by climate change. And, even while Congress remains gridlocked, the President can act now to implement these new standards, using the authority already given to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to clean up our air.

For Latino communities, action on climate change now means a healthier and more prosperous future for our children. Half of all U.S. Latinos live in places where air pollution often makes the air unsafe to breathe. Cutting pollution from existing power plants will not only clean up the air in communities near the plants, but will also help reduce the health impacts of climate change--like increased asthma attacks that come with warmer air. And with unemployment still hovering around 10% for Latinos, jobs in areas like construction, home weatherization, solar panel installation, and energy efficiency retrofits, will help get our workers back on their feet.

President Obama faces a long, difficult road in his second term, but his commitment to confront climate change could be a defining part of his legacy. The President has the opportunity now to drive global action on climate change, showing that we are committed to creating a healthier environment for all.

As President Obama outlined in his inaugural address, "America cannot resist this transition. We must lead it." Mr. President, the Latino community, and Americans across the nation, stand ready to support your actions to respond to the threat of climate change and protect our children and future generations.

http://switchboard.nrdc.org/blogs/aquintero/president_obama_vows_actio