The volcano eruption interferes with airplane travel demonstrating part of our future

On March 20, 2010 and then on April 14, the Eyjafjallajokull Volcano in Iceland erupted. This led to widespread disruption of air travel in Europe from 15 April, grounding planes and affecting the travel plans of millions of passengers worldwide. What I'm finding interesting isn't the direct effect this eruption has put on airlines and airline travelers, but what it demonstrates about our future as oil supplies tighten.

The eruption's aftermath affected travel around the world, with air space across more than 20 European countries remaining largely closed until April 20. The volcano erupts on a very long time scale, with the last eruption lasting (on and off) for over a year between 1821 and 1823. Since previous eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull have been followed by eruptions at its larger neighbour, Katla, there is some concern for a larger eruption to occur very soon. The Icelandic Meteorological Office published a study last December pointing to a rise in seismic activity that obviously was a precursor to this eruption.

The news is full of reports of economic trouble being faced by airlines, and by the inconvenience to travelers. The airlines problem is that, being unable to conduct flights, they cannot earn revenue, while at the same time they're spending money just from airplane ownership and other operations. As a result there are calls for an airline bailout. And of course the traveler inconvenience makes for heart wrenching stories with people struggling to find a way to get home from their holiday trip.

What this demonstrates is the clinging to the way things are. The situation is a disruption of normalcy, and the stories are entirely about the effort to return to normal. The airlines are returning back to business as usual, and the travelers are breathing a sigh of relief that normal travel routines will resume.

This specific instance is obviously a temporary disruption. Well, "temporary" in this case is determined by the length of the eruption and the actual effect of the airborn ash on airplanes. Air travel was grounded because of policies stemming from experience that turbine powered jet airplanes, when exposed to silicate ash from volcanoes, experience engine failure which would tend to cause an airplane crash. In any case, as a temporary disruption it isn't worth much pondering except for the discussion over better determination of the how much ash it takes to actually ground all air travel.

What I think it demonstrates though is the future when rising oil prices, due to depletion of oil production, will be a long term disruption of airlines functioning as business entities. One reason airplanes have become the dominant form of world travel, and global airplane travel has caused globalization, is due to the cheap oil that's fueled this great orgy of high energy living.

As oil prices rise (due to peak oil) airline travel will be less affordable causing a decline in travel. When that occurs airline companies will be facing a similar financial problem to the one they face today, declining revenue and a fleet of expensive airplanes on the tarmac demanding maintenance, insurance, and other costs. Unlike today, in that future it won't be a temporary disruption, the supply of oil based fuels will simply rise, and rise, and rise even more, with no end in sight.

Today's struggle to return to normalcy will seem like a minor blip in a couple months. It demonstrates that the airline executives and travelers will struggle for normalcy before giving up on airline travel. It demonstrates that in our future there will be an oil price shock that drives the airlines out of business, and there will be worldwide denial over the issue, and a worldwide struggle to return to the normalcy we experience today.

Links: 

Ash Turns Routine Flights Into Overland Odysseys

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2010 eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull

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Airlines Urge State Aid After Industry Chaos

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In Ash’s Wake, E.U. to Hasten Plan to Merge Airspace

Review: Crude Impact

This film examines the way in which the petrochemical industry has manipulated events around the world to its advantage, and the various effects from the over-use of resources.

It starts with an interesting factoid ... that for a zillion or so years human population on this planet remained steady until agriculture was developed. Ever since the development of agriculture approximately 10,000 yrs ago human beings have ever more successfully learned to exploit the resources of this planet. The pattern is to move into an area, extinguish all competition, and extract every last resource. The beginning of the fossil fuel age, which began approx 200 years ago with the adoption of coal and later with the adoption of oil, began an extreme rise in population accompanied by an extreme increase in the rate the human society was able to extract every last resource.

The use of oil has had grave impacts on our environment and our society. And there is a barely recognized threat of the looming shortfall in oil production.

The astonishing thing is we could very well live just as well as we do today while using less resources simply by being smarter about resource use.

Another astonishing factoid is that Americans are no happier now than 50+ years ago despite consuming a zillion times more resources than we did 50+ years ago. This is proof that the over-consumptive habits Americans have do not produce happiness, and raises the question of why we do so. Why not slow down instead?

While most of the movie focuses on the bad effects from using oil and the danger and likely traumatic consequences of the looming shortfall in oil production, the last bit of the movie raises an interesting point. Even if there were some magic technology developed that provided all the energy our society needed and produced no pollution.. would that solve the problems we have and we'd never face another resource crunch? Nope. First, the human society we live in has shown an unceasing appetite for increasing resource use at all cost so if industry had limitless energy they'd simply use it to pave the whole planet into factories and shopping malls. But more important is that the energy consumption is only one part of the pattern. Other resources are also in limited supply and also face a production shortfall at some point in the future.

What's most important to change is the behavioral patterns of our society. Since society behavior patterns are based on the behaviors of individuals the change begins with each of us individually, but the change also has to be made over the whole of society.

AASIN: 

Crude Impact

Principles: 

Minimizing resources required to achieve desired results of our activities

References: 

Books about the Oil Peak

EcoHaul

URL: 

EcoHaul

Description: 

Specializing in reuse, recycling, and donation, EcoHaul serves Residential and Business customers by providing enthusiastic, high quality customer service that is cost effective and efficient. No other removal and hauling company diverts more of their
customers' material from our landfills -- plus, EcoHaul is powered by Biodiesel!

In other words if you're a typical American and have consumerised your way to having too much stuff, these guys can help you without feeling guilty that your stuff is just going to a landfill.

extvideo: 

A study on the real cost of food

The real cost of a bag of salad: You pay 99p. Africa pays 50 litres of fresh water goes into the real cost of cheap groceries shipped from halfway around the world. More and more every product, from groceries on upward, is shipped around a global free market. The high lord muckety mucks who make all the decisions seem to think free trade is the solution to all economic problems. But what of other problems it creates?

In this specific case the article discusses the issue of groceries. For example, a bag of lettuce, grown halfway across the world, and shipped to your grocery store, and hopefully you'll remember to eat it before it rots. Maybe that lettuce is grown, as the article suggests, in a farming region where water is a scarce commodity, like Kenya. It may cost you a dollar to buy that bag of lettuce, but it costs the farmer 50 liters of water, and then there's the transportation and preparation costs and resources expenditures.

The article focusses primarily on water resources. One of the growing worldwide problems is maintaining water supplies for everything people are doing. But one should remember as you look at the article, hand in hand with water supply issues is oil and energy supply problems.

For example ... In Egypt, vegetables have become such an important export that the government has threatened military action against any country upstream that dams the Nile or its tributaries. Maintaining water supply threatens world peace.

For example ... Almost everybody in Europe who has eaten Kenyan beans or Kenyan strawberries or gazed at Kenyan roses has bought Naivasha water. It is sucking the lake dry. Naivasha is a lake in Kenya that's beeing overutilized to provide water for a range of uses. Water abuse is causing environmental degradation.

Suzuki to Bring Subcompact Swift to North America

Suzuki to Bring Subcompact Swift to North America: The idea is to capitalize on the interest in high gas mileage vehicles. What with the high gas prices last year, and that this year will continue with high gas prices, the American Public will certainly be primed for a vehicle like this. The specs quited are impressive, such as a 39mpg fuel economy for the gas version, and 51mpg for diesel.